Taiwan: Destined for takeover?

Long read by Hannah Gladwin

Taiwan is a country within its own right. China continually disputes this, claiming Taiwan as its 23rd province. This is to strengthen its territorial integrity, solidifying its claim to the South China Sea. China desperately wants control in this region and is pursuing this through aggressive military action. 

China wants the South China Sea to be Chinese rather than international, giving them power over this trading route, deterring Western powers from sailing through it. Rather than invading bordering countries such as the Philippines and Malaysia (who have as much of a claim to the sea as China does), China has dredged and reclaimed 3200 acres of land (Emmerson, D. K. 2016). This constructed land is used for Chinese military bases across the Sea acting as a physical deterrent to any other party wanting to dominate this region. This would solidify Chinese advantage in war in this region because it would be so well defended that the key weakness here would be Taiwan.

Taiwan is militarily supported by the USA who have committed to defend Taiwan if invaded by China. However, the US will not attack unless provoked. Yet in recent times we have seen many threats from China to the safety of Taiwan that could be considered provocative where no physical action has been taken by the US. The People's Liberation Army (PLA, China’s national army) violated international law, flying 153 aircraft, 36 naval and coast guard ships around Taiwan on the 14th October (Hille, K, 2024). This could be interpreted as a drill from China on how they would invade Taiwan, but there was no reaction taken by the USA. This is concerning because this lack of response may suggest to China that the threat of US action is relatively low and they could take Taiwan unchallenged, accelerating any plans of attack they may already have. China has certainly advocated that this could be the case in the future because they have threatened to annex Taiwan if they continue to refuse Chinese control (Hille, 2024).

President Xi Jinping’s initiative to achieve control of Taiwan is through ‘One China’, the idea that China and Taiwan are one country, two systems. Success of this initiative means China would control Taiwan’s defence and the US would no longer be able to project military force toward China from Taiwan. This is President Xi’s ideal, giving him full control over the South China Sea, a huge advantage in conflict. Yet the potential for the success of ‘One China’ through democratic agreement is delayed for the near future because the newest President of Taiwan Lai Ching-Te rejects ‘One China’. This means that if China wants to take Taiwan they will have to take it by force. Are we observing the precursor to this potential conflict in the recent actions of the PLA? The danger here is this could spark actual conflict in this region because the USA would have to support Taiwan. If the two greatest global superpowers go to war, where does that leave the rest of the world? Likely in a complex tangle of modern warfare. 

Over the last few months Taiwan appears to have growing concern for the threat of China with Karen Kuo, a spokesperson for Taiwan’s President saying “we are facing an ever increasing military threat from China…Taiwan and other countries nearby are all continuing to strengthen their defences”(Sevastopulo, D., Hille, K., 2024). This is exactly what Taiwan is doing, by deepening their relationship with the US, especially with the new Trump administration. Taipei are serious about stepping up their defence against China. This suggests that the actions of the PLA have shaken Taiwan, making them question their safety. Therefore, they have chosen to retaliate through building their own defence. This expresses the stubbornness of Taiwan against Chinese control because China has the largest army and navy in the world yet Taiwan feels they can challenge this rather than surrender to China through the support of the USA. Taiwan is considering buying a big package of US weapons. However, would this just create more unease in the China - Taiwan relationship?  China is likely to feel challenged by this action and may choose to retaliate with further drills, inching the region ever closer to war. This measure is supported by a former Pentagon official who has been vocal in urging Taiwan to step up (Sevastopulo, D., Hille, K., 2024). Therefore, the threat is internationally recognised, as their ally agrees that the threat has increased and Taiwan needs further protection. The US support of Taiwan currently acts as a deterrent against China in invading Taiwan, including the US being Taiwan’s biggest arms supplier. However, the new Trump administration has given signs of this support faltering which would only encourage Xi Jinping into achieving his goal. This could be incredibly dangerous, empowering China through landmass allowing control of the sea their land surrounds. Taiwan has been clear in showing that they want continued support from the US in defending themselves against China yet the new Trump administration doesn't seem as keen. Trump has said that ‘Taiwan should pay the US for defence’, (Sharma, S. 2024) making the US appear more like a service than an ally. This makes the safety of Taiwan precarious, suggesting the US could be bought off perhaps even by China to weaken Taiwan’s defensive position. Relations between the US and Taiwan were strained further when Trump accused Taiwan of taking advantage of the US semiconductor industry (Sharma, S. 2024). This is a contentious topic which has already sparked trade wars between the US and China, a further source of political instability between the superpowers. This instability stretching to Taiwan could be detrimental to the US and Taiwan relationship because it breaks down trading relationships and therefore weakens incentives for the US to support Taiwan. This could mean China would take this opportunity to bribe the US out of Taiwan. Xi has hinted at a better or more civil relationship with the US - ‘History teaches us that China and the US gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation’ (Sharma, S. 2024). This could be President Xi’s way of sweetening the US to provide hope of a defenceless future for Taiwan.

Is China capable of taking Taiwan?

The Chinese military, also known as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is formidable, with 2 million personnel and the largest army and navy in the world (The Economist, 2023). However, in the case of the PLA, this may be quantity over quality. Xi criticises the army for suffering a ‘peace disease’, from an almost complete lack of combat experience (The Economist, 2023). The army is in the completely wrong state to be launching an attack on Taiwan. Perhaps in the long term, this may be a possibility with Xi currently completely overhauling the PLA, training in real combat, and aiming to be a world-class fighting force by 2035. However, this cannot be the plan in the short term. In Lieutenant-General He Lei’s words, “We can’t go to war to improve our combat experience, right?” (The Economist, 2023). If China came to a position where it could and wanted to invade Taiwan it could be incredibly dangerous. With China having ‘control’ of the South China Sea and the US committed to protecting Taiwan under invasion this could lead to a war between the two economic rivals. Therefore, China most certainly has the resources to take Taiwan. It is just whether it has the ability. However, the recent drills off the coast of Taiwan show that the ability and physical capability of the PLA are improving making them not only the largest but working towards being the World's most able army. This creates a dangerous outlook for the future of our world if power hungry China has the power to take whatever they want. This suggests that if war occurs, it may not just be the US and China but could even be WW3. 

Taiwan hangs in a state of uncertainty, China is signalling their message loud and clear that they believe Taiwan is theirs yet Taiwan still remains to be its own country. The threat however is ever increasing and China appears closer to invasion with every drill or military action. Taiwan can only hope that their American safety net prevails and endures through the new administration. We cannot yet be certain but the likelihood of Taiwan falling to China feels ever increasing. 

References

The Economist. (2023). ‘How scary is China?’. The Economist. Vol. 449. Number 9371. pp. 12.  

The Economist. (2023). ‘Unknown soldiers’. The Economist. Vol. 449. Number 9371. pp. 8

Emmerson, D. K. Stanford University, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. (2016). ‘Why does China want to control the South China Sea?’. [online]. Available at: Why does China want to control the South China Sea? | FSI (stanford.edu). (Accessed 29/11/2023). 

Hille, K. Financial Times. (2024) ‘China’s show of force in massive military exercises alarms Taiwan’. [online]. Available at: China’s show of force in massive military exercises alarms Taiwan. (Accessed 17/11/2024) 

Hille, K., Sevastopulo, D. Financial Times (2024). ‘Taiwan considers big US defence purchases as overture to Donald Trump’. [online]. Available at: Taiwan considers big US defence purchases as overture to Donald Trump. (Accessed 17/11/2024). 

Sharma, S. The Independent. (2024). ‘What Trump’s election victory means for Taiwan and China’. [online]. Available at:What Trump’s election victory means for Taiwan and China. (Accessed 17/11/2024).